Friday, September 21, 2007

The changing face of the Presidential election.

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I started this as a hit piece, but it kind of morphed into something else. But let's start with:
What is Fred doing?

He has dodged the debates; he has not appeared at any of them and he had his chances. He is trying to woo the NRA and gun rights advocates, but why would they support him? What has he done to show that he is interested in their cause. On a side note, what the hell does Rudy think he can offer them? Has he gone crazy?!

Fred has not laid out any kind of platform. He has not spoken to any of the issues even in generalities that I have seen. But I don't follow him either, and the MSM is not putting it in my face either, so you decide... He decided to announce his candidacy on Leno. Come on, Leno??!

Fred obviously thinks his celebrity will translate to political support in this race. It will not. Ron Paul is changing this race into something we have not seen in a long time. He keeps the door open for Huckabbe, Kucinich and others to still have hope.

The base for the parties, especially the Republicans, is fragmenting and this is good for America. People are beginning to realize that they actually DO have choices and power to make a difference. How else could Paul, Kucinich, Huckabee and even Gravel still be hanging around and still getting press, at least on the Internet in some cases.

People are opening their eyes and it scares the "top tier" candidates. They are losing control to the real owners of the power; the people of America. This is going to continue. We will strive for honesty and justice in our government. As Ross Perot said "Vote your conscience.." This is the responsibility of all of us; vote what feels right for you. It doesn't matter if you vote for the winner. You will be the winner in the long run if you do this; we all will be!

Don't let ANYONE tell you not to "waste" your vote on Ron Paul or Kucinich or Huckabee. Like the old saying goes "There are no stupid questions.". Well, the only wasted votes are the ones that are not cast or cast out of fear or ignorance.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

What will it take for Ron Paul to get the nomination?

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So what will it take for him to get the nomination? How many votes will he have to get in the primaries?

I looked at the numbers on the FEC website from 1996. I don't think the 2000 numbers are as valid since McCain was really the only legitimate candidate running. The 1996 race seems to be comparable to 2008 since there were more than 2 contenders. Forbes, Dole, Buchanan and even Lamar Alexander were all in the running in some states. So it makes more sense to compare that year to this one.

Let's look at the numbers based on the FEC totals from 1996:

  • Total votes cast in the 1996 Republican presidential primary: 15,318,525
    • ( I will adjust this number by 20% due to the high turnout that year in my opinion)
  • Adjusted total:12,254,820
The percentages from the FEC seem to show that Dole won about 60% of those votes. That would mean he got approximately 7,352,982 votes (adjust for 20% from above). Seems like a lot of votes to me...

Can Ron Paul get that many votes? If my assumption is correct (and I may be way off!) Ron will need about 7.5 million votes to win the nomination.

There are around 40,000 Meetup members for Dr. Paul. If the vote ratio there is 10 to 1 (meaning that each person can recruit 10 more), that is 400,000 votes. He has $3,000,000 dollars in donations so far and if that is averaged for $50 per donation, that would be about 60,000 donors. But probably 90% of those are also Meetup members; so that is only about another 6000 votes. Based on his media exposure at a national level, I am going to throw in another 1,000,000 which probably includes the Libertarians that will vote for him. I will also be generous and throw in another 500,000 who did not vote in the 1996 primary either due to age or apathy.

My total estimate, at this time, would be about 2 million votes. Not many; he will need four times that many to win, I think. So we have our work cut out for us. Believe me, I hope I am wrong and there is a possibility that I am, but I can only work from the numbers and some guesstimates..

So where does that leave us? Ron has money to spend and I am sure there will be a lot more coming in this quarter. They have almost "filled the quill" for 1787 donors in just 4 days! That is a GREAT sign, but we cannot rest on our heels. We are not even close to being sure Ron can win.

Will there be apathy and cockiness by the "top tier" candidates and their constituents? I think so and hope so which means they may have a lower turnout. Will they be competing for the same group of voters? Absolutely! And there will be MANY who will never vote for them. There will also be Democrats who will vote for Ron in the Primary... But we must continue the exposure.

Get out and talk to people; put up a yard sign; chalk it up at your school, the young people are a very good source of "never voted" in my opinion and maybe most attracted to the message. Hang up signs in your neighborhood; yes, they will be taken down, but make them cheap. Trash cardboard and a marker can do wonders just to get Ron's name in people's faces. They will do the rest of the work; Ron's message is contagious!

We can't and should not give up! We ARE the patriots of our age and we have the power to make this happen. Ron is leading us and our power will become evident very soon!

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Interesting presidential campaign donations for "top tier" candidates.

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I was reading Radar magazine this week ( I think it comes with my Wired mag) and noticed an interesting little piece. About half a page on a Presidential campaign donation experiment.

Granted the amounts are small and I am not suggesting any association between the candidates and these donators, but it is kind of funny.

The magazine made $5 donation to the Clinton, Romney, Giuliani and Obama campaigns via the websites using the customized gift card method. The donators were: John Mark Karr, the Jon Benet Ramsey obsessive, Joe Power, president of the California chapter of NAMBLA (North American Man/Boy Love Association) and Sam G. Dickson, lawyer for a white sepratist group Council of Conservative Citizens. All donations were accepted without question and thank you e-mails and messages were sent to the names above.

Granted, it was strange and kind of middle-schoolish. Some of the comments on the site suggested that it was illegal (and probably is) to impersonate these people. Most discount the value of the experiment and assume it was just a joke. I agree for the most part, but the gift card site DID reject Osama Bin Laden as a donor.

I guess it is more a testament to what political campaigns have become. A quest for money in hopes of spending your way into office. Little of substance seems to matter any more as long as you can get you "good" name in front of more people than your "bad" name. And of drag all of the other candidates to a lower level of you. Basically, I AM the lesser of the evils.

Of course, I am a Ron Paul supporter and I am pretty sure the same thing would happen at his site. I doubt that any candidate scrutinizes their donor list to this extent. Although Hillary implies they are screening donors which found Hsu for them...

I don't feel like Dr. Paul is like the rest. He touts his philosophy but doesn't spend time dragging the others down. Ron is more interested in getting his message of freedom and reclaiming our country out to the people. He doesn't require picking the lesser of any evils.

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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Ron Paul; the last hope for morality in the GOP?

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Is Ron Paul the last GOP candidate that really shows some responsibility?
With the latest news on Larry.. and Mark Foley, etc. along with Rudy and his
"less than moral majority" ways it is possible that RP is one of the last
high profile "clean" GOPers around. Oh yeah, throw in Mitt's flipping and
flopping AND his ties to Larry Craig and of course the ever present GW monster.
But those heads are falling off... Rummy, gone.. Gonzales, gone..
Krover, gone..
The Dickster is still around to make it all the worse (for now)....

Google any Republican candidate name with "scandal" and see what you come up with;
Ron Paul hits on EXPOSING scandals not participating in them! Try it:
(I don't like to talk bad about these guys, especially McCain because I think John is
a good guy doing what he thinks is best...but the truth is always true.)

Ron Paul scandal
Rudy Giuliani scandal
Mitt Romney scandal
John McCain scandal

After all, when was the last time the Democrats looked like the moral majority!!!

But seriously, Ron Paul has the best Congressional voting record, maybe of
all time. He is not associated to any scandal; I know, many will bring up the
supposed racist issues and reports in his newsletter from the 90's that make some
very questionable remarks about blacks in Washington, D.C. Are they his remarks,
right from his mouth? And really, how much does it matter now? As I have read in many
comments on these articles and blog posts, even from non-Paul fans,"..if
the best you can do for dirt is cherry pick quotes from the 80's, I would say
the guy's in pretty good shape..."

As for anti-semitic remarks, of course he makes statements that sound bad.
But unconstitutional funding of Israel is what the man is talking about! He means
nothing personal to the Jews in any way. He would say the same thing about
such antics in Mexico, Saudi Arabia anywhere. It is what he is and it is what
makes him great!

If you must have a reference, go here: Ron Paul's race problem and read the
comments. Almost all are completely valid and very reasonable.

And if you must talk about him, talk about what he wants to do. Reduce the size
of government and put it back in its cage where it belongs! Increase personal freedom,
make allies across the world by helping when needed, not shoving America down
the world's throat.

These are the important things. He is a man of principle; you can't smear him.
You can criticize him for his thinking and his voting record; but his morals and
courage for this fight are beyond compare. I thought it a bit silly to compare him
to the Founding Fathers early on, but after listening to him and understanding him,
I think it might be right on.

Ron Paul is fighting our next revolution against tyranny from within; against
imperialism; against slavery by our own government! It must stop and it
can stop when a man like this has the power of the people behind him!

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Monday, September 17, 2007

Early Value Voter debate observations.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at PhotobucketI'm watching the Value Voters debate, which uses a different format than the Fox debate and I am amazed by Ron Paul's answers.

If you are not familiar with the format, it works like this:
Yes or no questions are asked in general to the candidates. They then indicate their
answer either way with some minutes they can use to address a particular issue
if they wanted to do so.

So, back to the answers. Ron Paul is holding to his convictions. Some of the questions
seem to have easy answers especially pertaining to things that would seem to
have an obvious answer. Questions about intervention by the Federal government
in Sudan slavery issues, the Terri Schiavo case allowing her to die in peace, etc.
Things that have an obvious answer for intervention by the government. But not
Dr. Paul!! His adherence to the Constitution and smaller government makes him
answer no to these questions. He will not stand for Federal intervention when
it is not immediately needed or when it violates an individual's rights.

He is not interested in telling people what they want to hear. It looks like the
rest of the candidates are obviously doing so, Ron seems to be the only one
who will vote no time and time again. A transcript of the debate should be
very revealing and show us much about his dedication to liberty, smaller
government and non-intervention policies.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

John Kerry agrees with Ron Paul on Iraq!

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at PhotobucketIt may seem incredible, but he does!
Let's look at the transcript from Meet The Press, September 16, 2007:

MR. RUSSERT: "Let me start with you, Senator McCain. What should be the U.S. strategy in Iraq for the next year?"

(After McCain's neo-con regurgitation, which I will not detail here; follow the link.
Basically, stay the course, spend the $300 million a day or chaos and genocide....)

(But here is Kerry's answer; sound familiar?)

MR. RUSSERT: "Senator Kerry, your response."

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA): "Well, the Bush-McCain strategy of escalating our
troops in the middle of a civil war has no relationship directly to
what you need to do to resolve the civil war. So you can put
additional troops in and secure a small area here or there, but
everybody knows there are not enough troops to be able to secure all of
the areas you need to secure and, most importantly, it does absolutely
nothing to resolve the fundamental differences, Tim.
A policy of putting more troops in and staying is a policy for staying.
It is not a policy for winning or for changing the equation......

Second major point, this is making us weaker in the war on terror.
It is emboldening Iran, empowering Iran, empowering Hamas, empowering
The United States has lost leverage in the region. We need
a better policy, and there is a better one."

(Remember, Ron says it is the policy that is failed and they attack us because we are
there when we have no right to be. Kerry goes on:)

(Sorry no context, but it is not really relevant; the quotes stand alone.
Ever heard this before?)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA):"...The fact is Iran loves our being bogged down in Iraq.
Al-Qaeda loves our being bogged down in Iraq. We are, as our own National
Intelligence Estimate said, attracting more terrorists because we are
in Iraq. We need to get out of Iraq in order to be stronger to deal
with Iran, in order to deal with Hezbollah and Hamas, to regain our
credibility in the region...."

(To Kerry's credit and I don't care at all for him, this is great!)

"...How many times do we have to hear President Bush, Vice President Cheney, Condi Rice,
General Casey, General Abizaid, General Petraeus,
all say there is no military solution?
Well, if there is no military solution, where is the political solution?

(Remember Ron saying:
"What do we have to pay to save face?
That's all we're doing is saving face!!" at the debate?)

(Speaking about Osama Bin Laden:)

"Yeah, and he’s able to do it because this administration took their eye off of him and
chose to go to war in a place that had nothing to do with the war on terror.
And the fact is, as I said before, al-Qaeda loves our being in Iraq. If you want to put
al-Qaeda off balance then change the equation. And Iran loves the fact that we’re in Iraq..."

All of this is exactly what Ron Paul was saying during the September debate. And what does
he get for it? Accusations of treason and unpatriotic activity! Ridiculous!

Any Democrat who is truly interested in getting out of Iraq ASAP and who would like to
restore the power to the American people (I know, fat chance on those two things together)
should obviously look to Ron. He is trying to do exactly what they want. Get out of Iraq,
engage Iran diplomatically and let the rest of the region figure it out for themselves.

Anyone who wants less government, sound fiscal, foreign and domestic policy and an
exit from Iraq and the middle east must consider Ron Paul.

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