Thursday, September 20, 2007

What will it take for Ron Paul to get the nomination?

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So what will it take for him to get the nomination? How many votes will he have to get in the primaries?

I looked at the numbers on the FEC website from 1996. I don't think the 2000 numbers are as valid since McCain was really the only legitimate candidate running. The 1996 race seems to be comparable to 2008 since there were more than 2 contenders. Forbes, Dole, Buchanan and even Lamar Alexander were all in the running in some states. So it makes more sense to compare that year to this one.

Let's look at the numbers based on the FEC totals from 1996:

  • Total votes cast in the 1996 Republican presidential primary: 15,318,525
    • ( I will adjust this number by 20% due to the high turnout that year in my opinion)
  • Adjusted total:12,254,820
The percentages from the FEC seem to show that Dole won about 60% of those votes. That would mean he got approximately 7,352,982 votes (adjust for 20% from above). Seems like a lot of votes to me...

Can Ron Paul get that many votes? If my assumption is correct (and I may be way off!) Ron will need about 7.5 million votes to win the nomination.

There are around 40,000 Meetup members for Dr. Paul. If the vote ratio there is 10 to 1 (meaning that each person can recruit 10 more), that is 400,000 votes. He has $3,000,000 dollars in donations so far and if that is averaged for $50 per donation, that would be about 60,000 donors. But probably 90% of those are also Meetup members; so that is only about another 6000 votes. Based on his media exposure at a national level, I am going to throw in another 1,000,000 which probably includes the Libertarians that will vote for him. I will also be generous and throw in another 500,000 who did not vote in the 1996 primary either due to age or apathy.

My total estimate, at this time, would be about 2 million votes. Not many; he will need four times that many to win, I think. So we have our work cut out for us. Believe me, I hope I am wrong and there is a possibility that I am, but I can only work from the numbers and some guesstimates..

So where does that leave us? Ron has money to spend and I am sure there will be a lot more coming in this quarter. They have almost "filled the quill" for 1787 donors in just 4 days! That is a GREAT sign, but we cannot rest on our heels. We are not even close to being sure Ron can win.

Will there be apathy and cockiness by the "top tier" candidates and their constituents? I think so and hope so which means they may have a lower turnout. Will they be competing for the same group of voters? Absolutely! And there will be MANY who will never vote for them. There will also be Democrats who will vote for Ron in the Primary... But we must continue the exposure.

Get out and talk to people; put up a yard sign; chalk it up at your school, the young people are a very good source of "never voted" in my opinion and maybe most attracted to the message. Hang up signs in your neighborhood; yes, they will be taken down, but make them cheap. Trash cardboard and a marker can do wonders just to get Ron's name in people's faces. They will do the rest of the work; Ron's message is contagious!

We can't and should not give up! We ARE the patriots of our age and we have the power to make this happen. Ron is leading us and our power will become evident very soon!


Anonymous said...

Interesting analysis, I did something similar a while back, and came to pretty much the same conclusion. I think it will really depend on what happens with the War and the Economy.

But I like your "Get out there" approach -- I mean most people still say "Who" when you mention his name -- we need to AT LEAST make them stop saying THAT so that they pay attention when he gets more press or advertising.

You suggested: "Hang up signs in your neighborhood; yes, they will be taken down, but make them cheap."

Can I suggest the mini-billboards available here as a resource. Looks like something ANYONE could do, and pretty cheaply (like maybe $10 at an office supply for some labels). I also like that it ties his name to specific stands he takes on issues (and we know HE won't waffle or flip-flop on these).

Dave4RPaul said...

I think you are talking about the labels?

That is also a good idea since it is portable and non-destructive.

But yes, we need to continue to get the word out to the very end!

Steal these images and spread them around the web...

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